Post by Brian M on Jan 31, 2009 23:21:35 GMT
From: Sylvesteruk1 (Original Message) Sent: 22/10/2005 21:29
Met up with fellow SAFARI enthusiasts David Bona (14/2) today and we discussed how many SAFARI caravans could have survived and what would be the most popular model.
Not knowing the yearly model production figures one can only presume that in the 70`s it would relate to the average car engine size and popularity.
Lets take the top of SAFARI range and we have the 17/2, 17/4, 17s weighing in at 21 cwt minimum. Now in the 70`s there were very few diesel engined cars compared with now with their good torque and powerful small cc engines. So not only was the caravan expensive in 1970 at over £1000.00, the only cars capable of pulling that weight would be in the 3 litre plus petrol category. Such cars as Rover 3.5V8 or 3 litre Granada spring to mine, so its fair to say this model was produced in small numbers so the survival rate now must be very low.
Next down we have the 15/2 and 15/4 at £925 tipping the scales at 18 cwt minimum so we are now looking at 2 litre petrol engined cars such as the Cortina and Rover 2000. So again whilst the production run would be higher then the 17 models the survival rate is still not going to be high.
We now come to 14/2 at 16 cwt minimum so we can see that the popular engine size of 1600cc fitted in Fords, Vauxhall, Leyland and the like would find a ready market.
Those Safari customers requiring a 4 berth and only having a run of the mill 1600cc car would have to settle for a 13/4 at 16 cwt the 15/4 being to heavy.
So we are left with the 12/2 at 14 cwt minimum ideal for couple with no children and a small engined car.
So in conclusion I think the 14/2 was the most popular, therefore has the largest survival rate and from current ebay listings this year confirms this. Followed by the 12/2 and 13/4.
So I think the rarest Safari is the 17 model range followed by the 15 models.
Any thoughts on this Brian?
Mike
First Previous 2-6 of 6 Next Last Delete Replies
Reply
Recommend Delete Message 2 of 6 in Discussion
From: Brian Sent: 23/10/2005 11:00
Mike
What a great question.
I had to spend a few hours last night updating my database but with the following caveat my figures are as follows.
I keep a database of every Safari I come across: group members, sales on ebay, other adverts, actual sightings and personal contacts by letter, email, phone etc. The problem is that there is almost certainly some duplication - ebay sales becoming members, adverts in more than one source etc. So knock off whatever percentage you think!
First of all PRODUCTION FIGURES
I was astonsihed to find that I don't have one serial number for any Safari between 1958 and 1974, so if any member reading this can provide more serial numbers I would love to receive them, but give below the last serial number for each year on my records.
1958 - 436
1975 - 204
1976 - 290
1977 - 342
1978 - 340
1979 - 247
1980 - 12
1981 - 210
1982 - 123
I don't understand the low number for 1980, but I think we can assume an annual production of 250-350 for these years.
In most years I have a serial number with the third digit being a zero therefore I think we can assume they used ##001 upwards each year. But this does mean 6 sales every week
The range ran from 1962 - 1982, But if we multiply 20 years times 300 average we get to 6000 that seems a bit high (unless anyone knows anything different) perhaps 3000 might be a better estimate.
From my lists I have the following totals of survivors:
Model Members numbers Other sources
17-4 5 5
17-2 3 1
15-4 8 7
14-4 1 4
14-2 12 19
13-4 3 7
13-2 1 4
12-4 1
12-2 33 27
Other members details not known
28
Totals 95 74
So your assumption about survivors omitted the most popular 12 footers.
I also have a few old magazines and brochures and give below the quoted prices for the Safari range. Again if anyone can add to this data please let me know.
Model
DATES
4/68
9/69
1970
12/70
12/72
7/73
11/2
640
750
875
962
12/2
860
1025
1127
12/4
895
1065
1171
13/2
617
699
740
13/3
615
13/4
654
730
770
14/2
1040
1240
1364
14/4
1040
15/2
828
880
925
15/3
750
15/4
828
880
925
17/4
899
980
1055
1190
1425
1567
17/4S
1560
1815
1996
Having put all this down on paper for the first time I realise what an anorak I am becoming! The only thing I haven't done is a database of surviving glasses!!
I can't claim that any of the above figures are anything more than totals of my personal contacts with Safaris and so welcome any corrections or criticisms, to enable us to collectively arrive at some actual numbers for the benefit of future Safari Historians.
So please let me have your thoughts and contributions.
Brian
Reply
Recommend Delete Message 3 of 6 in Discussion
From: DavidABona1944 Sent: 23/10/2005 11:30
To Brian & Mike
May I first of all thank you both for the time and expertise that you have imparted to your fellow Safari Caravan enthusiasts in the last two messages relating to the production and survival rates of Safari Caravans.
It is only with this level of support and dedication, that the Group as a whole will continue to grow and the prestige relating to Safari Caravans will be enhanced.
I look forward to the day when we will be able to organise a first Meeting of Safari owners, so that we will be able to put faces to names.
With regard to your figures, after purchasing the 15/4 from Mike, yesterday, which I now propose to refurbish, I own the following two Caravans :-
14/2 Serial Number 80223
15/4 Serial Number 78349
David Bona
Reply
Recommend Delete Message 4 of 6 in Discussion
From: Sylvesteruk1 Sent: 23/10/2005 14:36
Brain,
I did list the 12 footer as a good candidate for survival but not being a caravaner when we had young children dismissed it on size. It was only today talking to fellow SAFARI owner Joan Farrall who, when they went caravaning with their 5 children in a small van, used the awning for accomodation, so now I can see the 12/2 being the most produced van both on cost and weight.
Mike
Reply
Recommend Delete Message 5 of 6 in Discussion
From: Sylvesteruk1 Sent: 23/10/2005 14:56
Sorry Brian I have got you down as Brain on my reply, I must take more water with my whisky in my SAFARI glass!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Reply
Recommend Delete Message 6 of 6 in Discussion
From: Brian Sent: 23/10/2005 16:18
So David's serial number declaration gives a 1980 figure of at least 223 that is a far better estimate comparable with the other years.
Brian
Met up with fellow SAFARI enthusiasts David Bona (14/2) today and we discussed how many SAFARI caravans could have survived and what would be the most popular model.
Not knowing the yearly model production figures one can only presume that in the 70`s it would relate to the average car engine size and popularity.
Lets take the top of SAFARI range and we have the 17/2, 17/4, 17s weighing in at 21 cwt minimum. Now in the 70`s there were very few diesel engined cars compared with now with their good torque and powerful small cc engines. So not only was the caravan expensive in 1970 at over £1000.00, the only cars capable of pulling that weight would be in the 3 litre plus petrol category. Such cars as Rover 3.5V8 or 3 litre Granada spring to mine, so its fair to say this model was produced in small numbers so the survival rate now must be very low.
Next down we have the 15/2 and 15/4 at £925 tipping the scales at 18 cwt minimum so we are now looking at 2 litre petrol engined cars such as the Cortina and Rover 2000. So again whilst the production run would be higher then the 17 models the survival rate is still not going to be high.
We now come to 14/2 at 16 cwt minimum so we can see that the popular engine size of 1600cc fitted in Fords, Vauxhall, Leyland and the like would find a ready market.
Those Safari customers requiring a 4 berth and only having a run of the mill 1600cc car would have to settle for a 13/4 at 16 cwt the 15/4 being to heavy.
So we are left with the 12/2 at 14 cwt minimum ideal for couple with no children and a small engined car.
So in conclusion I think the 14/2 was the most popular, therefore has the largest survival rate and from current ebay listings this year confirms this. Followed by the 12/2 and 13/4.
So I think the rarest Safari is the 17 model range followed by the 15 models.
Any thoughts on this Brian?
Mike
First Previous 2-6 of 6 Next Last Delete Replies
Reply
Recommend Delete Message 2 of 6 in Discussion
From: Brian Sent: 23/10/2005 11:00
Mike
What a great question.
I had to spend a few hours last night updating my database but with the following caveat my figures are as follows.
I keep a database of every Safari I come across: group members, sales on ebay, other adverts, actual sightings and personal contacts by letter, email, phone etc. The problem is that there is almost certainly some duplication - ebay sales becoming members, adverts in more than one source etc. So knock off whatever percentage you think!
First of all PRODUCTION FIGURES
I was astonsihed to find that I don't have one serial number for any Safari between 1958 and 1974, so if any member reading this can provide more serial numbers I would love to receive them, but give below the last serial number for each year on my records.
1958 - 436
1975 - 204
1976 - 290
1977 - 342
1978 - 340
1979 - 247
1980 - 12
1981 - 210
1982 - 123
I don't understand the low number for 1980, but I think we can assume an annual production of 250-350 for these years.
In most years I have a serial number with the third digit being a zero therefore I think we can assume they used ##001 upwards each year. But this does mean 6 sales every week
The range ran from 1962 - 1982, But if we multiply 20 years times 300 average we get to 6000 that seems a bit high (unless anyone knows anything different) perhaps 3000 might be a better estimate.
From my lists I have the following totals of survivors:
Model Members numbers Other sources
17-4 5 5
17-2 3 1
15-4 8 7
14-4 1 4
14-2 12 19
13-4 3 7
13-2 1 4
12-4 1
12-2 33 27
Other members details not known
28
Totals 95 74
So your assumption about survivors omitted the most popular 12 footers.
I also have a few old magazines and brochures and give below the quoted prices for the Safari range. Again if anyone can add to this data please let me know.
Model
DATES
4/68
9/69
1970
12/70
12/72
7/73
11/2
640
750
875
962
12/2
860
1025
1127
12/4
895
1065
1171
13/2
617
699
740
13/3
615
13/4
654
730
770
14/2
1040
1240
1364
14/4
1040
15/2
828
880
925
15/3
750
15/4
828
880
925
17/4
899
980
1055
1190
1425
1567
17/4S
1560
1815
1996
Having put all this down on paper for the first time I realise what an anorak I am becoming! The only thing I haven't done is a database of surviving glasses!!
I can't claim that any of the above figures are anything more than totals of my personal contacts with Safaris and so welcome any corrections or criticisms, to enable us to collectively arrive at some actual numbers for the benefit of future Safari Historians.
So please let me have your thoughts and contributions.
Brian
Reply
Recommend Delete Message 3 of 6 in Discussion
From: DavidABona1944 Sent: 23/10/2005 11:30
To Brian & Mike
May I first of all thank you both for the time and expertise that you have imparted to your fellow Safari Caravan enthusiasts in the last two messages relating to the production and survival rates of Safari Caravans.
It is only with this level of support and dedication, that the Group as a whole will continue to grow and the prestige relating to Safari Caravans will be enhanced.
I look forward to the day when we will be able to organise a first Meeting of Safari owners, so that we will be able to put faces to names.
With regard to your figures, after purchasing the 15/4 from Mike, yesterday, which I now propose to refurbish, I own the following two Caravans :-
14/2 Serial Number 80223
15/4 Serial Number 78349
David Bona
Reply
Recommend Delete Message 4 of 6 in Discussion
From: Sylvesteruk1 Sent: 23/10/2005 14:36
Brain,
I did list the 12 footer as a good candidate for survival but not being a caravaner when we had young children dismissed it on size. It was only today talking to fellow SAFARI owner Joan Farrall who, when they went caravaning with their 5 children in a small van, used the awning for accomodation, so now I can see the 12/2 being the most produced van both on cost and weight.
Mike
Reply
Recommend Delete Message 5 of 6 in Discussion
From: Sylvesteruk1 Sent: 23/10/2005 14:56
Sorry Brian I have got you down as Brain on my reply, I must take more water with my whisky in my SAFARI glass!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Reply
Recommend Delete Message 6 of 6 in Discussion
From: Brian Sent: 23/10/2005 16:18
So David's serial number declaration gives a 1980 figure of at least 223 that is a far better estimate comparable with the other years.
Brian